Strategy 4: How to find a "let down"
Of course these strategies aren't always true (Oregon/Washington this year), but use a teams schedule and check out the games they've recently played or big games they are about to play to look for a let down game. Let's always keep in mind that these kids (or guys) are human beings just like the rest of us. They watch Sportscenter, they get in fights with their girlfriend(s) and they put their pants on one leg at a time.
One example is the worst bet I've seen this year courtesy a friend this past week. Michigan State (-3.5) at Minnesota. The below average gambler (my friend is not he just made a bad read) thought, "Hey they almost beat Iowa last year and they are undefeated... surely they can beat Minnesota by a touchdown." That Iowa game is exactly the kind of game that will deflate a team... especially one traveling the next week for another night game. Of course... Minnesota won straight up 42-34.
The key to this strategy is to make sure you use it with mediocre teams. We did not know Oregon was this good, thus it didn't work when they went to Washington to play the Huskies. It didn't matter that Oregon had USC the following week, they are laying the beat down on whoever they play. Michigan State is a great example of a mediocre team who can play good teams well, but also can lose it against below average teams. The majority of middle of the road teams in BCS conferences would fall into this category.
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